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NAB warns on mining cliff

Slowly but surely the better minds of Australian market economics are turning up the pitch of worry. NAB has completed a very useful analysis of the last week’s BREE major projects report and the...

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Garnaut, Jonson: Avert the 2014 recession

If you have money at risk in asset markets then I suggest you listen to and view the below longish presentation in full. It may be the most important hour for your financial health of your lifetime. It...

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Gen Y in for a nasty shock?

News has a story today that is the leading edge of what could become an interesting issue: EMPLOYERS frustrated by their failure to communicate with Gen Y workers are turning to psychologists for help...

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Garnaut delivers cold drenching to elite

Last night  I attended Victoria University’s 2013 Vice-Chancellor’s Lecture and dinner. It was presented by Professor Ross Garnaut who, can I say, threw a bucket of cold water on a shocked audience of...

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BHP cans coal

More miming rationalisation emanating from BHP today: BHP Billiton has all but ruled out pursuing growth projects in its coal division in the short to medium term and has raised the possibility of...

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My new favourite analyst

Damien Klassen at Wilson HTM is my new favourite analyst. He’s written the best report on the mining investment cliff that I have seen. It’s a week old but well worth your time. It’s good to see some...

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Wilson HTM: The capex cliff remains

My new favourite analyst, Damian Klassen at Wilson HTM, offers another fantastic note this morning on why the capex situation is unchanged after yesterday’s release. No need to extract. Just read it...

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Defining Australian recessions

Cross-posted from Mark the Graph The very first post on this blog was about identifying recessions, based on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. At the time I noted the other definition of...

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The Australian recession we don’t have to have

Suddenly an Australian recession is not such a shocking idea to the MSM. Today’s press is full of recession hand-wringing and for good reason. Yesterday’s GDP figures painted a worrying picture of an...

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WA: Close but no recession

Cross-posted from Mark the Graph With the release of this week’s national accounts, there was a lot of breathless reporting that two quarters of negative growth in state final demand meant Western...

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Goldman downgrades Australia on recession risk

Yesterday Goldman Sachs downgraded its Australian growth and dollar targets on rising recession risk: Australian economic growth forecast to be sub 2% in 2014 Following the release of 1Q13 economic...

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Alan Kohler, recessionista!

From the mercurial Alan Kohler this morning comes some plain talking: Yesterday Michael Chaney expressed what most people in business are feeling right now. The chairman of National Australia Bank and...

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Are we talking ourselves into recession?

One of the more persistent slogans of recent economic commentary is that Australia is in danger of “talking itself into recession”. This is, it seems to me, the kind of bastardisation that Australian...

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Guess what else Tim Toohey forecast?

As Wayne Swan does his best to cover his tracks in failing to prepare Australia for the end of the mining boom, it is useful to look back and see that  Tim Toohey has long forecast this outcome, and...

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Recessionista wanted dead or alive!

By Leith van Onselen Treasurer Wayne Swan rides his mule into the ground today hunting down the recessionista: Mr Swan called media stories on the prediction “deeply irresponsible” and “incredibly...

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Ed Shann joins Australian bear school

Another heavy-weight of Australia economics weighs in on the bear side of the economic narrative today. Ed Shann appears at the AFR with a bear roar: Both the Treasury and Reserve Bank have warned that...

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Morgan Stanley downgrades Australian growth

From the AFR, following Goldman, Morgan Stanley has sharply lowered its Australian growth forecasts to 2.6 per cent from 3.1 per cent for next year. Strategist Chris Nicol said weak data from China, a...

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Blame Hockey for any recession?

David Bassanese of the AFR today has a reasonable take on the current hand-wringing about Australian growth next year: If the Australian economy suffers a recession in the next year or so, there will...

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Roger Montgomery on mining capex risks

By Leith van Onselen Above is a video interview that screened on Switzer TV on Friday with Roger Montgomery, head of Montgomery Investment Management, discussing the risks to the Australian economy as...

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Saul Eslake joins the recessionista

The eminently sensible Saul Eslake, Economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, is out with a new note weighing into the Australian recession debate and hang onto your hat: As the ‘resources investment...

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